[태그:] SP500

  • [2026.02.06] Today’s US Market Forecast: Sunny! Dow 50K Breakout & QLD +4.16% Rebound Report


    When will my “Tomato System” (Portfolio) finally turn into a field of ripe, red profits (positive returns)? If today’s momentum continues, I believe that day is just around the corner.

    I think today’s market can be perfectly expressed with this song: “Fly Me to the Moon” (Frank Sinatra) 🎵 Leaving yesterday’s fears behind, today feels like a celebration of the Dow 50,000 era, as if we’ve been launched toward the moon.

    Hello, this is JSCC2020. The US stock market has reached a historic milestone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the 50,000 point mark for the first time in history, sparking a powerful rally. The Nasdaq (+2.18%) and S&P 500 (+1.97%) surged in tandem, brushing off yesterday’s decline. In particular, our portfolio’s QLD jumped by +4.16%, leading the charge in our recovery.

    [Notice] For the best viewing experience, we recommend viewing the tables in this post in landscape mode on your smartphone.

    🌐 Today’s Market Pulse: 3 Key Drivers

    1. A Historic Moment: Dow 50,000: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high of 50,115.67, opening a new chapter for US equities. This has injected strong “bullish confidence” into the entire market. (Source: WSJ, CNBC)
    2. Tech Dip-Buying Frenzy: The Nasdaq Index closed at 23,031.21, rebounding by 2.18%. Renewed earnings expectations for AI-related stocks, led by NVIDIA, drove the index upward. (Source: Reuters, Bloomberg)
    3. Interest Rate Path Stability: As the Fed maintains its neutral stance on interest rates, pressure on high-valuation tech stocks has eased, leading to a clear preference for risk assets. (Source: J.P. Morgan, Yahoo Finance)

    📊 Portfolio Performance by Strategy Group (Day 11 Update)

    Here is a breakdown of the Daily Change and My Return for our holdings, categorized by strategy.

    1. [Group 1] Nasdaq 100 Focused (Tech & Growth)

    This group benefited most directly from the Nasdaq’s +2.18% rebound.

    TickerETF NameStrategyDaily ChgMy Return
    QLDProShares 2x Nasdaq 1002x Leverage+4.16%-4.38%
    QQQMInvesco Nasdaq 100Index+2.11%-2.03%
    GPIQGS Nasdaq-100 Core PremiumCovered Call+2.02%-2.25%
    QQQINEOS Nasdaq 100 High Inc.Covered Call+1.98%-2.37%
    JEPQJPMorgan Nasdaq EquityCovered Call+1.97%-1.80%
    418660TIGER US Nasdaq 100 Lev2x Leverage-3.48%*-8.15%
    494300KODEX US Nasdaq 100 DailyCovered Call-0.96%*-4.06%

    2. [Group 2] S&P 500 Focused (Broad Market)

    Major holdings showed a steady recovery trend within the broad market upturn.

    TickerETF NameStrategyDaily ChgMy Return
    SSOProShares 2x S&P 5002x Leverage+3.85%-1.45%
    SPYMSPDR S&P 500 PortfolioIndex+1.96%-0.47%
    GPIXGS S&P 500 Core PremiumCovered Call+1.77%-1.25%
    JEPIJPMorgan Equity PremiumCovered Call+1.49%+0.87%

    3. [Group 3] Dividend, Bond & Specialty (Defensive)

    This group supports the portfolio’s floor, delivering consistent performance.

    TickerETF NameStrategyDaily ChgMy Return
    SCHDSchwab US Dividend EquityDiv. Growth+1.61%+7.65%
    490600RISE US Div 100 DailyCovered Call+0.05%+1.88%
    473330SOL US 30Yr TreasuryCovered Call+1.09%-0.96%
    473460KODEX US Stock AntActive-3.32%*-11.03%

    *Note: Korean-listed ETFs (KODEX, TIGER, etc.) reflect Friday’s close; the US market’s rally will be priced in when the Korean market opens on Monday.

    🔍 Day 11 Insights: Recovery Resilience Toward “Green”

    1. Leverage’s Massive Momentum: As noted, QLD surged +4.16%, bringing my return up to -4.38%. This is the kind of recovery resilience only those who endured yesterday’s dip can experience.
    2. Strength of Covered Calls & Dividends: Despite market volatility, SCHD (+7.65%) and JEPI (+0.87%) are already holding onto positive returns, acting as the anchor for the entire account.
    3. 🇰🇷 Monday Korean Market Outlook: The current figures for domestic ETFs do not yet reflect Friday night’s US explosion. A strong gap-up open is expected on Monday morning, so the moment our account turns fully “green” (positive) seems very close.

    💡 Final Thoughts

    In the era of Dow 50,000, we will continue to pursue a strategy focused on Cash Flow until the Tomato System is fully in the black. While prices may fluctuate, the dividends we collect continue to stack up.

  • “Under the Umbrella” — Tech Stocks Slide as Trump Picks Hawkish Fed Chair

    Hello, this is JSCC2020. I’m living through these market tears every day. Today, I think Rihanna’s ‘Umbrella’ perfectly captures the stock market mood. “Under my umbrella, ella, ella…” Just like the lyrics, we desperately need a sturdy umbrella to shield our portfolios from this relentless storm. With both Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling, my account is already soaked to the bone.

    As of early February 2026, the news of President Trump nominating a hyper-hawkish candidate for the next Fed Chair has sent a chilling wind through the US stock market. My account is feeling quite battered today.

    [Notice] For the best experience, we recommend viewing the tables in this post in landscape mode on your smartphone.

    🌐 3 Key Issues Defining Today’s Market

    1. Trump’s Hawkish Fed Nominee: President Trump has recommended a candidate who strongly favors monetary tightening, far exceeding market expectations. Fear is gripping the market as expectations for prolonged high-interest rates to curb inflation settle in.
    2. Nasdaq 23,400 Level Under Threat: The Nasdaq, most sensitive to interest rates, took a direct hit. Closing at 23,461.82 (-0.94%), high-valuation tech stocks are feeling a pain “like a bullet to the heart.”
    3. Flight to Safety Amid Rate Fears: With concerns over long-term high rates, the S&P 500 also slipped below the 7,000 mark to 6,939.03 (-0.43%). Investors are trimming tech positions and seeking refuge in stable dividend growth and income-generating assets.

    1. [Group 1] Nasdaq 100 ETFs & Covered Call Comparison

    ETF Name (Ticker)Price ($)Daily ReturnMy ReturnAnalysis Summary
    QQQM (Invesco)254.15-0.95%-0.95%Tracking Nasdaq 100. Directly hit by hawkish sentiment.
    JEPQ (JPMorgan)58.71-0.92%-0.92%Nasdaq Covered Call. Defending via option premiums.
    GPIQ (Goldman Sachs)52.537-1.43%-1.43%Nasdaq Core Premium. Expanded losses in high volatility.
    QQQI (NEOS)53.53-1.69%-1.69%High Income. Holding on for the 10%+ distribution yield.
    QLD (ProShares)70.67-1.78%-1.78%2x Nasdaq Leverage. Account melting under double the pain.

    2. [Group 2] SCHD, High Dividend Covered Calls & S&P 500

    ETF Name (Ticker)Price ($)Daily ReturnMy ReturnAnalysis Summary
    SCHD (Schwab)29.645+1.09%+1.09%Today’s Winner. Standing tall as a value play amid rate fears.
    JEPI (JPMorgan)58.185-0.87%-0.87%S&P 500 Low Vol Income. Proving stable defense vs. Nasdaq.
    GPIX (Goldman Sachs)52.69-1.40%-1.40%S&P 500 Covered Call. Strategic defensive zone for income.
    SPYM (SPDR)81.05-0.89%-0.89%S&P 500 Portfolio. Relatively stable compared to Tech-heavy funds.
    SSO (ProShares)58.758-1.74%-1.74%2x S&P 500 Leverage. Losses widening as the index slides.

    3. Today’s Winners & Losers: “Raindrops on My Portfolio”

    • 🏆 Today’s Winner: SCHD (+1.09%) It shined alone despite the hawkish nominee news. The true value of Dividend Investing is proven in these chaotic downturns. It was the only sturdy Umbrella protecting my account in this tech storm.
    • ❌ Today’s Loser: QLD (-1.78%) As soon as the news “Next Chair is a Hawk!” broke, Nasdaq wavered, and the 2x leveraged QLD collapsed. It’s a stark reminder of how ruthless leverage can be during peak interest rate volatility.

    4. Investment Insights: “Enduring the Hawk with Income”

    Uncertainty regarding interest rates is likely to dominate the market for the time being following Trump’s announcement. However, we must check our cash flow calmly.

    • The Power of Cash Flow: Monthly dividends from JEPQ, JEPI, and QQQI don’t stop even when prices fall. This cash becomes the actual engine that helps us endure the slump and buy the dip.
    • Rediscovering Value: Today clearly proved how vital dividend growth stocks like SCHD are as a buffer in a tech-heavy portfolio.
    • Crisis as Opportunity: While policy uncertainty has pushed prices down, this could be a ‘dip-buying’ opportunity to accumulate high-quality ETFs at a cheaper price than usual for the long term.

    I want to ask the market, “Why are you doing this?” but I’ll trust the overwhelming track record of 2025, wipe my tears, and keep collecting shares. Let’s hope the rain stops and the market finds stability tomorrow!